Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 3 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 29 September 2026 at 20:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is one of only 4 we have recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 July 2026. The last comparable one was on 16 September 2026. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 10:40AM MST until September 29 at 1:45PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ
Urban PEI: 222,265 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 12 July 2026
- July 13, 2026 · 4.3 km
- July 17, 2026 · 9.1 km
- September 12, 2026 · 10.4 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 37 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 37 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 32.8749, -111.3181 |
| Nearest City | Florence (19 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 222.3K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-29T17:40:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.48e71ef6a1ff4445c944a598cb602643879d27bc.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-29T17:40:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-29T16:31:37.857Z. Material modification: 2026-09-29T17:47:29.717Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-29T16:58:38.562Z · data_change
Index 46 → 37.
2026-09-29T16:47:47.850Z · data_change
Index 16 → 46.
5 retained revisions changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.48e71ef6a1ff4445c944a598cb602643879d27bc.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Pinal, AZ; Pima, AZ; Pima, AZ; Pinal, AZ and 2 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 10:40AM MST until September 29 at 1:45PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-29T13:45:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Tucson AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 10 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.48e71ef6a1ff4445c944a598cb602643879d27bc.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.645cbd430762199ed3f85bd22cd44c46d9ae2aff.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.abcdeaa851e8c106f3832d4206ced273a23c2e42.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.259d8c0dbbda730480bd1e779db928af1f718b65.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d5acb9243d20e06a5c9993ec779481a2e5aa9b65.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.10e7e6cfb8280415d4a27941c29d387c9e6a2fdd.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.188d5d1cc9778be8a9ee423b5999f6f853dc6b63.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f3416fd6289cfd6d3f1e0482152ab320389019db.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3c03f5df265227cd6948a79920c9a28a3f2746a6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e5dcce8919d01d3fa0ba509621965487376ab545.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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